Arizona’s 6th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most evenly balanced House seats, with a partisan voting index near zero after Donald Trump carried it by less than a point in 2024. Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza each won their July 21 primaries without opposition, setting up a November 3 general-election rematch in a seat that has changed party control in recent cycles. Available polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly three points, while Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan analysts continue to rate the contest a toss-up. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns the Democratic Party an 82.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain ground in midterm elections and with the district’s narrow 2024 presidential margin. No major late-cycle developments have altered these fundamentals in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
83%
共和党
18%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,889 Vol.
83%
共和党
$6,032 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 6th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most evenly balanced House seats, with a partisan voting index near zero after Donald Trump carried it by less than a point in 2024. Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza each won their July 21 primaries without opposition, setting up a November 3 general-election rematch in a seat that has changed party control in recent cycles. Available polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly three points, while Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan analysts continue to rate the contest a toss-up. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns the Democratic Party an 82.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain ground in midterm elections and with the district’s narrow 2024 presidential margin. No major late-cycle developments have altered these fundamentals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
音量
$9,921終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 6th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most evenly balanced House seats, with a partisan voting index near zero after Donald Trump carried it by less than a point in 2024. Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza each won their July 21 primaries without opposition, setting up a November 3 general-election rematch in a seat that has changed party control in recent cycles. Available polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly three points, while Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan analysts continue to rate the contest a toss-up. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns the Democratic Party an 82.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain ground in midterm elections and with the district’s narrow 2024 presidential margin. No major late-cycle developments have altered these fundamentals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,921終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona’s 6th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most evenly balanced House seats, with a partisan voting index near zero after Donald Trump carried it by less than a point in 2024. Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza each won their July 21 primaries without opposition, setting up a November 3 general-election rematch in a seat that has changed party control in recent cycles. Available polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly three points, while Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan analysts continue to rate the contest a toss-up. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns the Democratic Party an 82.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain ground in midterm elections and with the district’s narrow 2024 presidential margin. No major late-cycle developments have altered these fundamentals in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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