Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with consistent polling support near 40-41% in September surveys, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) in the mid-teens. Her advantage stems from incumbency, a broad coalition including PP and União Brasil, and voter familiarity ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower-probability contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo trail in single digits, reflecting limited momentum in recent Datafolha and Igape data. Minor campaign developments, including an electoral court fine over a state-linked video and ongoing public-sector labor talks, have not shifted the overall positioning. Trader consensus on the market tracks these polling trends and the structural edge for the sitting governor seeking re-election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 4.5%
Elisson <1%
$17,106 Vol.
$17,106 Vol.
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
8%
Leandro Grass
4%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 4.5%
Elisson <1%
$17,106 Vol.
$17,106 Vol.
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
8%
Leandro Grass
4%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with consistent polling support near 40-41% in September surveys, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) in the mid-teens. Her advantage stems from incumbency, a broad coalition including PP and União Brasil, and voter familiarity ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower-probability contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo trail in single digits, reflecting limited momentum in recent Datafolha and Igape data. Minor campaign developments, including an electoral court fine over a state-linked video and ongoing public-sector labor talks, have not shifted the overall positioning. Trader consensus on the market tracks these polling trends and the structural edge for the sitting governor seeking re-election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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