Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models places Shanghai’s May 18 maximum in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the slight market edge to 27 °C reflecting marginally stronger insolation under partly cloudy skies. Mid-May conditions remain transitional between spring and pre-monsoon regimes, so daytime warming depends on the timing of any East China Sea breeze and the extent of residual cloud cover that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows daily highs clustered between 22 °C and 27 °C, confirming that a single degree separates the two leading outcomes and leaves room for modest model spread or small changes in boundary-layer moisture before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の上海の最高気温は?
27°C 33%
26°C 27%
28°C 18%
25°C 9%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
9%
26°C
27%
27°C
33%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 33%
26°C 27%
28°C 18%
25°C 9%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
9%
26°C
27%
27°C
33%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models places Shanghai’s May 18 maximum in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the slight market edge to 27 °C reflecting marginally stronger insolation under partly cloudy skies. Mid-May conditions remain transitional between spring and pre-monsoon regimes, so daytime warming depends on the timing of any East China Sea breeze and the extent of residual cloud cover that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows daily highs clustered between 22 °C and 27 °C, confirming that a single degree separates the two leading outcomes and leaves room for modest model spread or small changes in boundary-layer moisture before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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