Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Kurdish groups like PJAK, PDKI, Komala, or PAK declaring independence from Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory despite the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Key drivers include Iran's sustained missile strikes on Kurdish bases in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, IRGC crackdowns quelling limited January insurgencies and protests, and the February Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan prioritizing regime overthrow and self-determination over outright secession. No major escalations have occurred since late March, when U.S. support rumors fizzled amid Trump's retraction and failed offensive plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden regime collapse enabling territorial control or bold coalition action backed by external intervention.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$139,035 Vol.
$139,035 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$139,035 Vol.
$139,035 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Kurdish groups like PJAK, PDKI, Komala, or PAK declaring independence from Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory despite the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Key drivers include Iran's sustained missile strikes on Kurdish bases in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, IRGC crackdowns quelling limited January insurgencies and protests, and the February Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan prioritizing regime overthrow and self-determination over outright secession. No major escalations have occurred since late March, when U.S. support rumors fizzled amid Trump's retraction and failed offensive plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden regime collapse enabling territorial control or bold coalition action backed by external intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
音量
$139,035終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Kurdish groups like PJAK, PDKI, Komala, or PAK declaring independence from Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory despite the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Key drivers include Iran's sustained missile strikes on Kurdish bases in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, IRGC crackdowns quelling limited January insurgencies and protests, and the February Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan prioritizing regime overthrow and self-determination over outright secession. No major escalations have occurred since late March, when U.S. support rumors fizzled amid Trump's retraction and failed offensive plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden regime collapse enabling territorial control or bold coalition action backed by external intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$139,035終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Kurdish groups like PJAK, PDKI, Komala, or PAK declaring independence from Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory despite the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Key drivers include Iran's sustained missile strikes on Kurdish bases in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, IRGC crackdowns quelling limited January insurgencies and protests, and the February Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan prioritizing regime overthrow and self-determination over outright secession. No major escalations have occurred since late March, when U.S. support rumors fizzled amid Trump's retraction and failed offensive plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden regime collapse enabling territorial control or bold coalition action backed by external intervention.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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