**Trader sentiment for Taipei's lowest temperature on August 29, 2026, centers on a tight contest between 25°C and 26°C (47–51% implied probabilities), reflecting forecast model consensus around a mid-20s°C overnight minimum amid typical late-summer conditions.** Official guidance from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau and international models (including GFS and ECMWF analogs) project an overnight low of 25–27°C, with several sources clustering near 26°C or 25–26°C. High humidity (often 80–95%), persistent cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms or showers, and light variable winds limit radiational cooling after sunset, keeping temperatures from dropping further. Historical August climatology for Taipei shows typical overnight lows near 25°C, providing a baseline that aligns with current model runs. The near-even split between 25°C and 26°C arises from minor differences in station-specific readings, urban heat island effects in central Taipei versus outlying areas, and small variations across forecast ensembles—common in humid subtropical environments where dew points remain elevated near 26°C. Lower-probability outcomes like 24°C would require clearer skies and stronger cooling not currently indicated, while higher values appear inconsistent with the evening stabilization seen in hourly guidance. Updated model runs and official observations near dawn will likely resolve the narrow gap.