New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing Manhattan’s Upper East and West Sides along with Midtown, has delivered Democratic margins above 75 percent in recent House elections, reflecting its strong partisan composition and voter registration edge. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary has drawn a competitive field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to face only nominal Republican opposition in November. The current trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, as historical turnout patterns and fundraising data favor the eventual Democratic candidate. A late scandal involving the primary winner or an unanticipated national shift could narrow the margin, but such developments remain low-probability events given the district’s entrenched Democratic support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,681 Vol.
94%
共和党
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing Manhattan’s Upper East and West Sides along with Midtown, has delivered Democratic margins above 75 percent in recent House elections, reflecting its strong partisan composition and voter registration edge. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary has drawn a competitive field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to face only nominal Republican opposition in November. The current trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, as historical turnout patterns and fundraising data favor the eventual Democratic candidate. A late scandal involving the primary winner or an unanticipated national shift could narrow the margin, but such developments remain low-probability events given the district’s entrenched Democratic support.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$17,171終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing Manhattan’s Upper East and West Sides along with Midtown, has delivered Democratic margins above 75 percent in recent House elections, reflecting its strong partisan composition and voter registration edge. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary has drawn a competitive field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to face only nominal Republican opposition in November. The current trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, as historical turnout patterns and fundraising data favor the eventual Democratic candidate. A late scandal involving the primary winner or an unanticipated national shift could narrow the margin, but such developments remain low-probability events given the district’s entrenched Democratic support.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,171終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing Manhattan’s Upper East and West Sides along with Midtown, has delivered Democratic margins above 75 percent in recent House elections, reflecting its strong partisan composition and voter registration edge. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary has drawn a competitive field including state assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg, yet any nominee is expected to face only nominal Republican opposition in November. The current trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, as historical turnout patterns and fundraising data favor the eventual Democratic candidate. A late scandal involving the primary winner or an unanticipated national shift could narrow the margin, but such developments remain low-probability events given the district’s entrenched Democratic support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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