New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Midtown, maintains a longstanding Democratic advantage rooted in urban voter demographics and consistent election margins. The June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher, while Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed, setting up a general election contest on November 3, 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% Democratic probability aligns with the district’s structural profile and historical results for the party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, late major scandal, or unprecedented national political shift capable of overcoming the seat’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,659 Vol.
$32,659 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
98%
共和党
<1%
$32,659 Vol.
$32,659 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$17,205 Vol.
98%
共和党
$15,454 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Midtown, maintains a longstanding Democratic advantage rooted in urban voter demographics and consistent election margins. The June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher, while Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed, setting up a general election contest on November 3, 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% Democratic probability aligns with the district’s structural profile and historical results for the party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, late major scandal, or unprecedented national political shift capable of overcoming the seat’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$32,659終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Midtown, maintains a longstanding Democratic advantage rooted in urban voter demographics and consistent election margins. The June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher, while Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed, setting up a general election contest on November 3, 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% Democratic probability aligns with the district’s structural profile and historical results for the party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, late major scandal, or unprecedented national political shift capable of overcoming the seat’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,659終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Midtown, maintains a longstanding Democratic advantage rooted in urban voter demographics and consistent election margins. The June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher, while Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed, setting up a general election contest on November 3, 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% Democratic probability aligns with the district’s structural profile and historical results for the party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, late major scandal, or unprecedented national political shift capable of overcoming the seat’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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