Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's NATO aspirations have kept comprehensive peace talks stalled despite U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi. Russia's foreign minister has signaled that resuming negotiations is not a top priority, while both sides traded accusations of violating a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire in mid-May that included only a limited prisoner exchange. With core issues unresolved and no major diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks, traders see little prospect of a full agreement materializing before the June 30 deadline, though an unexpected concession or extended truce could still shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$439,184 Vol.
$439,184 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$439,184 Vol.
$439,184 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's NATO aspirations have kept comprehensive peace talks stalled despite U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi. Russia's foreign minister has signaled that resuming negotiations is not a top priority, while both sides traded accusations of violating a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire in mid-May that included only a limited prisoner exchange. With core issues unresolved and no major diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks, traders see little prospect of a full agreement materializing before the June 30 deadline, though an unexpected concession or extended truce could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$439,184終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's NATO aspirations have kept comprehensive peace talks stalled despite U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi. Russia's foreign minister has signaled that resuming negotiations is not a top priority, while both sides traded accusations of violating a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire in mid-May that included only a limited prisoner exchange. With core issues unresolved and no major diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks, traders see little prospect of a full agreement materializing before the June 30 deadline, though an unexpected concession or extended truce could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$439,184終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's NATO aspirations have kept comprehensive peace talks stalled despite U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi. Russia's foreign minister has signaled that resuming negotiations is not a top priority, while both sides traded accusations of violating a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire in mid-May that included only a limited prisoner exchange. With core issues unresolved and no major diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks, traders see little prospect of a full agreement materializing before the June 30 deadline, though an unexpected concession or extended truce could still shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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