Recent diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026, have not bridged core gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and demilitarization that continue to stall comprehensive talks. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions before full negotiations advance, while Ukrainian positions emphasize lasting security arrangements and opposition to ceding sovereignty. With U.S.-mediated trilateral discussions paused amid competing priorities and Russia signaling no urgency to resume, the timeline to June 30 leaves little room for the concessions or verification mechanisms needed for a signed agreement. Trader consensus at 94.4% on No reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$440,099 Vol.
$440,099 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$440,099 Vol.
$440,099 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026, have not bridged core gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and demilitarization that continue to stall comprehensive talks. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions before full negotiations advance, while Ukrainian positions emphasize lasting security arrangements and opposition to ceding sovereignty. With U.S.-mediated trilateral discussions paused amid competing priorities and Russia signaling no urgency to resume, the timeline to June 30 leaves little room for the concessions or verification mechanisms needed for a signed agreement. Trader consensus at 94.4% on No reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$440,099終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026, have not bridged core gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and demilitarization that continue to stall comprehensive talks. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions before full negotiations advance, while Ukrainian positions emphasize lasting security arrangements and opposition to ceding sovereignty. With U.S.-mediated trilateral discussions paused amid competing priorities and Russia signaling no urgency to resume, the timeline to June 30 leaves little room for the concessions or verification mechanisms needed for a signed agreement. Trader consensus at 94.4% on No reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$440,099終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026, have not bridged core gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and demilitarization that continue to stall comprehensive talks. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions before full negotiations advance, while Ukrainian positions emphasize lasting security arrangements and opposition to ceding sovereignty. With U.S.-mediated trilateral discussions paused amid competing priorities and Russia signaling no urgency to resume, the timeline to June 30 leaves little room for the concessions or verification mechanisms needed for a signed agreement. Trader consensus at 94.4% on No reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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