Russia's Supreme Court ruled on August 10, 2026, that Yabloko's federal party list could not participate in the September 18-20 State Duma elections after a Rodina party lawsuit cited alleged violations. This followed the Central Election Commission's earlier registration of the list and amid broader restrictions on opposition figures, including fines and candidate disqualifications tied to the party's anti-war platform. Traders assign 99.9% probability to an effective ban holding through the September 17 resolution threshold because the court decision aligns with established patterns in Russian election disputes and leaves minimal time for reversal. An upheld appeal or narrow procedural reversal remains theoretically possible but faces significant institutional and timeline barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
>99% 確率
$431,962 Vol.
$431,962 Vol.
2026/09/17
はい
>99% 確率
$431,962 Vol.
$431,962 Vol.
2026/09/17
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Russia's Supreme Court ruled on August 10, 2026, that Yabloko's federal party list could not participate in the September 18-20 State Duma elections after a Rodina party lawsuit cited alleged violations. This followed the Central Election Commission's earlier registration of the list and amid broader restrictions on opposition figures, including fines and candidate disqualifications tied to the party's anti-war platform. Traders assign 99.9% probability to an effective ban holding through the September 17 resolution threshold because the court decision aligns with established patterns in Russian election disputes and leaves minimal time for reversal. An upheld appeal or narrow procedural reversal remains theoretically possible but faces significant institutional and timeline barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
音量
$431,962終了日
2026/09/17マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Russia's Supreme Court ruled on August 10, 2026, that Yabloko's federal party list could not participate in the September 18-20 State Duma elections after a Rodina party lawsuit cited alleged violations. This followed the Central Election Commission's earlier registration of the list and amid broader restrictions on opposition figures, including fines and candidate disqualifications tied to the party's anti-war platform. Traders assign 99.9% probability to an effective ban holding through the September 17 resolution threshold because the court decision aligns with established patterns in Russian election disputes and leaves minimal time for reversal. An upheld appeal or narrow procedural reversal remains theoretically possible but faces significant institutional and timeline barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$431,962終了日
2026/09/17マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's Supreme Court ruled on August 10, 2026, that Yabloko's federal party list could not participate in the September 18-20 State Duma elections after a Rodina party lawsuit cited alleged violations. This followed the Central Election Commission's earlier registration of the list and amid broader restrictions on opposition figures, including fines and candidate disqualifications tied to the party's anti-war platform. Traders assign 99.9% probability to an effective ban holding through the September 17 resolution threshold because the court decision aligns with established patterns in Russian election disputes and leaves minimal time for reversal. An upheld appeal or narrow procedural reversal remains theoretically possible but faces significant institutional and timeline barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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