Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.06.30
신규
신규
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
거래량
$7,650종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$7,650종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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