Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat with an R+7 Partisan Voter Index that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race Likely Republican, citing Crane’s established name recognition, fundraising lead exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of strong Democratic challengers ahead of the July 21 primaries. Jonathan Nez leads the Democratic primary field but faces an uphill path in a district where Republicans have won by double digits in recent House contests. Trader pricing at 58 percent for the Republican Party aligns with these fundamentals and the limited movement in early polling, though primary outcomes and any late-cycle national shifts could still influence the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
59%
Democratic Party
34%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
$330 거래량
59%
Democratic Party
$208 거래량
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat with an R+7 Partisan Voter Index that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race Likely Republican, citing Crane’s established name recognition, fundraising lead exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of strong Democratic challengers ahead of the July 21 primaries. Jonathan Nez leads the Democratic primary field but faces an uphill path in a district where Republicans have won by double digits in recent House contests. Trader pricing at 58 percent for the Republican Party aligns with these fundamentals and the limited movement in early polling, though primary outcomes and any late-cycle national shifts could still influence the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
거래량
$537종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat with an R+7 Partisan Voter Index that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race Likely Republican, citing Crane’s established name recognition, fundraising lead exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of strong Democratic challengers ahead of the July 21 primaries. Jonathan Nez leads the Democratic primary field but faces an uphill path in a district where Republicans have won by double digits in recent House contests. Trader pricing at 58 percent for the Republican Party aligns with these fundamentals and the limited movement in early polling, though primary outcomes and any late-cycle national shifts could still influence the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$537종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat with an R+7 Partisan Voter Index that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race Likely Republican, citing Crane’s established name recognition, fundraising lead exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of strong Democratic challengers ahead of the July 21 primaries. Jonathan Nez leads the Democratic primary field but faces an uphill path in a district where Republicans have won by double digits in recent House contests. Trader pricing at 58 percent for the Republican Party aligns with these fundamentals and the limited movement in early polling, though primary outcomes and any late-cycle national shifts could still influence the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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