This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian-backed forces have focused strikes on targets inside Iran and Lebanon, with fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon reported as recently as May 16 despite a U.S.-mediated ceasefire extension. These actions, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and military sites in late February, keep the number of distinct countries struck this year closely balanced between four and five in trader assessments. Escalation risks along the northern border, continued missile exchanges, and diplomatic talks could either limit further expansion or draw in additional fronts such as Syria, maintaining the tight spread across the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian-backed forces have focused strikes on targets inside Iran and Lebanon, with fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon reported as recently as May 16 despite a U.S.-mediated ceasefire extension. These actions, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and military sites in late February, keep the number of distinct countries struck this year closely balanced between four and five in trader assessments. Escalation risks along the northern border, continued missile exchanges, and diplomatic talks could either limit further expansion or draw in additional fronts such as Syria, maintaining the tight spread across the leading outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 8 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
May 6 2026
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Apr 27 2026
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 17 2026
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 10 2026
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Apr 10 2026
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Apr 1 2026
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Mar 22 2026
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Mar 13 2026
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Mar 5 2026
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Mar 2 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Feb 14 2026
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Feb 14 2026
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Jan 12 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Dec 30 2025
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Dec 20 2025
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Dec 2 2025
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Dec 1 2025
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Nov 22 2025
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Nov 15 2025
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian-backed forces have focused strikes on targets inside Iran and Lebanon, with fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon reported as recently as May 16 despite a U.S.-mediated ceasefire extension. These actions, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and military sites in late February, keep the number of distinct countries struck this year closely balanced between four and five in trader assessments. Escalation risks along the northern border, continued missile exchanges, and diplomatic talks could either limit further expansion or draw in additional fronts such as Syria, maintaining the tight spread across the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian-backed forces have focused strikes on targets inside Iran and Lebanon, with fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon reported as recently as May 16 despite a U.S.-mediated ceasefire extension. These actions, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and military sites in late February, keep the number of distinct countries struck this year closely balanced between four and five in trader assessments. Escalation risks along the northern border, continued missile exchanges, and diplomatic talks could either limit further expansion or draw in additional fronts such as Syria, maintaining the tight spread across the leading outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 8 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
May 6 2026
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Apr 27 2026
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 17 2026
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 10 2026
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Apr 10 2026
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Apr 1 2026
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Mar 22 2026
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Mar 13 2026
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Mar 5 2026
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Mar 2 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Feb 14 2026
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Feb 14 2026
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Jan 12 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Dec 30 2025
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Dec 20 2025
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Dec 2 2025
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Dec 1 2025
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Nov 22 2025
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Nov 15 2025
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"은 16개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 41%의 "5"이며, 이어서 39%의 "4"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 41¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 41%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"은 총 $6.7 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 13, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 16개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"의 현재 유력 후보는 41%의 "5"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 41%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 39%의 "4"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"에 $6.7 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?" 마켓에서 "5"의 41¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "5"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 41%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 41¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 59¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?" 마켓은 Dec 31, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 512개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "2026년에 이스라엘은 얼마나 많은 나라를 공격하게 될까요?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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