Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains stalled across key holdout states amid persistent regional tensions and demands for Palestinian statehood. As of early 2026, 163 UN members already recognize Israel, with no new formal recognitions reported since the market opened in November 2025. Recent developments include a brief April 2026 cessation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border that revived talks of eventual Lebanese recognition, alongside Syrian signals of openness to long-term negotiations on the Golan Heights. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any bilateral agreement on progress toward a Palestinian state, while public opinion in several Arab and Muslim-majority nations shows limited support for further Abraham Accords-style deals. With the June 30 resolution deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs in the past month, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional recognitions, though upcoming diplomatic initiatives could still shift dynamics before the cutoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$335,876 거래량
북한
2%
쿠바
1%
사우디아라비아
2%
레바논
6%
아프가니스탄
1%
이라크
1%
파키스탄
1%
시리아
3%
베네수엘라
2%
튀니지
1%
쿠웨이트
3%
카타르
2%
인도네시아
1%
말레이시아
1%
방글라데시
3%
$335,876 거래량
북한
2%
쿠바
1%
사우디아라비아
2%
레바논
6%
아프가니스탄
1%
이라크
1%
파키스탄
1%
시리아
3%
베네수엘라
2%
튀니지
1%
쿠웨이트
3%
카타르
2%
인도네시아
1%
말레이시아
1%
방글라데시
3%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains stalled across key holdout states amid persistent regional tensions and demands for Palestinian statehood. As of early 2026, 163 UN members already recognize Israel, with no new formal recognitions reported since the market opened in November 2025. Recent developments include a brief April 2026 cessation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border that revived talks of eventual Lebanese recognition, alongside Syrian signals of openness to long-term negotiations on the Golan Heights. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any bilateral agreement on progress toward a Palestinian state, while public opinion in several Arab and Muslim-majority nations shows limited support for further Abraham Accords-style deals. With the June 30 resolution deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs in the past month, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for additional recognitions, though upcoming diplomatic initiatives could still shift dynamics before the cutoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문