China's July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, below consensus, established a low base driven by persistent weakness in food prices—particularly pork amid ample supply and soft consumer demand—along with slower non-food gains and easing transport costs after fuel adjustments and stabilized global energy prices. With the August figure still pending, trader probabilities cluster tightly between 0.5-0.6% and 0.7-0.8% because analysts see limited catalysts for a sharp rebound or further decline before the early-September release. Core inflation trends near 0.9%, stable housing costs, and subdued domestic demand continue to anchor expectations near recent lows, while any uptick in consumption or energy prices could shift the outcome within the narrow band.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAugust Inflation China - Annual
0.7% - 0.8% 43%
0.5% - 0.6% 37%
0.3% - 0.4% 10.6%
0.9%+ 7.1%
≤0.2%
7%
0.3% - 0.4%
11%
0.5% - 0.6%
37%
0.7% - 0.8%
43%
0.9%+
7%
0.7% - 0.8% 43%
0.5% - 0.6% 37%
0.3% - 0.4% 10.6%
0.9%+ 7.1%
≤0.2%
7%
0.3% - 0.4%
11%
0.5% - 0.6%
37%
0.7% - 0.8%
43%
0.9%+
7%
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...China's July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, below consensus, established a low base driven by persistent weakness in food prices—particularly pork amid ample supply and soft consumer demand—along with slower non-food gains and easing transport costs after fuel adjustments and stabilized global energy prices. With the August figure still pending, trader probabilities cluster tightly between 0.5-0.6% and 0.7-0.8% because analysts see limited catalysts for a sharp rebound or further decline before the early-September release. Core inflation trends near 0.9%, stable housing costs, and subdued domestic demand continue to anchor expectations near recent lows, while any uptick in consumption or energy prices could shift the outcome within the narrow band.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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