Recent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
31°C 98.6%
32°C 1.2%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
$60,745 Wol.
$60,745 Wol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 98.6%
32°C 1.2%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
$60,745 Wol.
$60,745 Wol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,343 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$1,724 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$3,055 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$4,962 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$5,848 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$6,164 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$6,305 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$9,221 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$9,427 Wol.
99%
32°C
$6,758 Wol.
1%
33°C or higher
$6,346 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$60,745Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$60,745Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUURecent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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