Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18, driven by easterly flow that limits moisture influx and convective cooling while allowing strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with May climatology, when the Philippine heat index often reaches 34–36°C amid high humidity and light winds averaging 7–9 km/h. Trader consensus has shifted modestly toward 34°C as the implied probability leader following the latest agency outlook, though model spread keeps 33°C and 35°C competitive. Official resolution will hinge on the highest hourly reading from PAGASA’s Manila station, with final data expected shortly after sunset on May 18.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on May 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 18?
34°C 37%
35°C 28%
33°C 24%
36°C 8.2%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
37%
35°C
28%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 28%
33°C 24%
36°C 8.2%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
$953 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$108 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$1,083 Wol.
1%
32°C
$926 Wol.
4%
33°C
$681 Wol.
24%
34°C
$408 Wol.
37%
35°C
$242 Wol.
28%
36°C
$923 Wol.
8%
37°C
$178 Wol.
2%
38°C
$338 Wol.
1%
39°C or higher
$299 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18, driven by easterly flow that limits moisture influx and convective cooling while allowing strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with May climatology, when the Philippine heat index often reaches 34–36°C amid high humidity and light winds averaging 7–9 km/h. Trader consensus has shifted modestly toward 34°C as the implied probability leader following the latest agency outlook, though model spread keeps 33°C and 35°C competitive. Official resolution will hinge on the highest hourly reading from PAGASA’s Manila station, with final data expected shortly after sunset on May 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,134Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18, driven by easterly flow that limits moisture influx and convective cooling while allowing strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with May climatology, when the Philippine heat index often reaches 34–36°C amid high humidity and light winds averaging 7–9 km/h. Trader consensus has shifted modestly toward 34°C as the implied probability leader following the latest agency outlook, though model spread keeps 33°C and 35°C competitive. Official resolution will hinge on the highest hourly reading from PAGASA’s Manila station, with final data expected shortly after sunset on May 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$6,134Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA forecasts and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18, driven by easterly flow that limits moisture influx and convective cooling while allowing strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with May climatology, when the Philippine heat index often reaches 34–36°C amid high humidity and light winds averaging 7–9 km/h. Trader consensus has shifted modestly toward 34°C as the implied probability leader following the latest agency outlook, though model spread keeps 33°C and 35°C competitive. Official resolution will hinge on the highest hourly reading from PAGASA’s Manila station, with final data expected shortly after sunset on May 18.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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