Trader consensus strongly favors no major meteor strike delivering 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, as reflected in the 85% market-implied odds for that outcome. This positioning stems from long-term astronomical data on near-Earth object impact frequencies, which show such events occur far less than once per decade on average. No recent detections or trajectory updates from planetary defense networks have flagged any high-risk asteroids or comets for the remainder of the year, and ongoing surveys continue without raising alerts. While surprise discoveries or orbital perturbations remain theoretically possible, the lack of any credible developments in recent months keeps the probability firmly anchored on historical rarity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$154,189 Wol.
$154,189 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$154,189 Wol.
$154,189 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus strongly favors no major meteor strike delivering 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, as reflected in the 85% market-implied odds for that outcome. This positioning stems from long-term astronomical data on near-Earth object impact frequencies, which show such events occur far less than once per decade on average. No recent detections or trajectory updates from planetary defense networks have flagged any high-risk asteroids or comets for the remainder of the year, and ongoing surveys continue without raising alerts. While surprise discoveries or orbital perturbations remain theoretically possible, the lack of any credible developments in recent months keeps the probability firmly anchored on historical rarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$154,189Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus strongly favors no major meteor strike delivering 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, as reflected in the 85% market-implied odds for that outcome. This positioning stems from long-term astronomical data on near-Earth object impact frequencies, which show such events occur far less than once per decade on average. No recent detections or trajectory updates from planetary defense networks have flagged any high-risk asteroids or comets for the remainder of the year, and ongoing surveys continue without raising alerts. While surprise discoveries or orbital perturbations remain theoretically possible, the lack of any credible developments in recent months keeps the probability firmly anchored on historical rarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$154,189Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no major meteor strike delivering 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, as reflected in the 85% market-implied odds for that outcome. This positioning stems from long-term astronomical data on near-Earth object impact frequencies, which show such events occur far less than once per decade on average. No recent detections or trajectory updates from planetary defense networks have flagged any high-risk asteroids or comets for the remainder of the year, and ongoing surveys continue without raising alerts. While surprise discoveries or orbital perturbations remain theoretically possible, the lack of any credible developments in recent months keeps the probability firmly anchored on historical rarity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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