Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent near-record low extents and ice area through early May, including a May 8 area of just 10.75 million square kilometers, reflect thin first-year ice vulnerable to rapid melt under above-average spring air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern per NOAA outlooks adds further downward pressure on summer ice, consistent with historical links to reduced minima, while PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows amplify sensitivity to seasonal weather variability. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will supply updated model consensus ahead of the critical melt peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Wol.
$48,619 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Wol.
$48,619 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 Wol.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,465 Wol.
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 Wol.
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,387 Wol.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 Wol.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Wol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent near-record low extents and ice area through early May, including a May 8 area of just 10.75 million square kilometers, reflect thin first-year ice vulnerable to rapid melt under above-average spring air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern per NOAA outlooks adds further downward pressure on summer ice, consistent with historical links to reduced minima, while PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows amplify sensitivity to seasonal weather variability. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will supply updated model consensus ahead of the critical melt peak.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$48,619Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent near-record low extents and ice area through early May, including a May 8 area of just 10.75 million square kilometers, reflect thin first-year ice vulnerable to rapid melt under above-average spring air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern per NOAA outlooks adds further downward pressure on summer ice, consistent with historical links to reduced minima, while PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows amplify sensitivity to seasonal weather variability. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will supply updated model consensus ahead of the critical melt peak.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$48,619Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent near-record low extents and ice area through early May, including a May 8 area of just 10.75 million square kilometers, reflect thin first-year ice vulnerable to rapid melt under above-average spring air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern per NOAA outlooks adds further downward pressure on summer ice, consistent with historical links to reduced minima, while PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows amplify sensitivity to seasonal weather variability. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will supply updated model consensus ahead of the critical melt peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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