Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$136,756 Wol.
$136,756 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
$136,756 Wol.
$136,756 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$136,756Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$136,756Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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