The narrow 2.8-point first-round gap on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established de la Espriella as the runoff frontrunner ahead of the June 21 vote. Rapid consolidation of center-right support, including endorsements from eliminated candidate Paloma Valencia and former presidents, has reinforced trader expectations of a de la Espriella win by single or low double digits. Cepeda's positioning as a continuation of the outgoing administration limits crossover appeal in a polarized contest centered on security and economic policy. The "Other" outcome at 50% and clustered de la Espriella margin probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics eleven days out, while the 12% on a Cepeda victory accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout and late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizadode la Espriella 10-15% 31%
de la Espriella 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella 0-5% 19%
de la Espriella 15%+ 12.8%
$84,158 Vol.
$84,158 Vol.
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
13%
de la Espriella 10-15%
31%
de la Espriella 5-10%
30%
de la Espriella 0-5%
19%
Vitória de Cepeda Castro
12%
de la Espriella 10-15% 31%
de la Espriella 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella 0-5% 19%
de la Espriella 15%+ 12.8%
$84,158 Vol.
$84,158 Vol.
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
$20,395 Vol.
13%
de la Espriella 10-15%
$20,209 Vol.
31%
de la Espriella 5-10%
$14,803 Vol.
30%
de la Espriella 0-5%
$18,690 Vol.
19%
Vitória de Cepeda Castro
$10,061 Vol.
12%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The narrow 2.8-point first-round gap on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established de la Espriella as the runoff frontrunner ahead of the June 21 vote. Rapid consolidation of center-right support, including endorsements from eliminated candidate Paloma Valencia and former presidents, has reinforced trader expectations of a de la Espriella win by single or low double digits. Cepeda's positioning as a continuation of the outgoing administration limits crossover appeal in a polarized contest centered on security and economic policy. The "Other" outcome at 50% and clustered de la Espriella margin probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics eleven days out, while the 12% on a Cepeda victory accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout and late shifts.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volume
$84,158Data de Término
22 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The narrow 2.8-point first-round gap on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established de la Espriella as the runoff frontrunner ahead of the June 21 vote. Rapid consolidation of center-right support, including endorsements from eliminated candidate Paloma Valencia and former presidents, has reinforced trader expectations of a de la Espriella win by single or low double digits. Cepeda's positioning as a continuation of the outgoing administration limits crossover appeal in a polarized contest centered on security and economic policy. The "Other" outcome at 50% and clustered de la Espriella margin probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics eleven days out, while the 12% on a Cepeda victory accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout and late shifts.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$84,158Data de Término
22 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The narrow 2.8-point first-round gap on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established de la Espriella as the runoff frontrunner ahead of the June 21 vote. Rapid consolidation of center-right support, including endorsements from eliminated candidate Paloma Valencia and former presidents, has reinforced trader expectations of a de la Espriella win by single or low double digits. Cepeda's positioning as a continuation of the outgoing administration limits crossover appeal in a polarized contest centered on security and economic policy. The "Other" outcome at 50% and clustered de la Espriella margin probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics eleven days out, while the 12% on a Cepeda victory accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout and late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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