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icon for Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

icon for Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,957 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,957 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,589 Vol.

14%

Siga Batista

$24,522 Vol.

7%

Fernando Dias da Costa

$57,700 Vol.

15%

José Mário Vaz

$22,281 Vol.

3%

Baciro Djá

$14,532 Vol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,755 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,784 Vol.

3%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,236 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Guinea-Bissau’s December 6, 2026 presidential and legislative elections follow the November 2025 coup that halted vote counting after opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory over incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló.** A military transitional authority under General Horta Inta-A Na Man is overseeing the process and has barred itself from running while scheduling an August 30 constitutional referendum that would shift the country toward a stronger presidential system. Dias da Costa, backed by the PAIGC and PRS networks after several major parties were excluded in 2025, holds a narrow lead in trader pricing over Embaló, with the remaining field of independents and minor-party candidates each below 7 percent. Persistent political fragmentation, unresolved disputes from the prior annulled contest, and uncertainty over the referendum’s impact on institutional power keep the top two contenders closely matched. Further separation could emerge from the referendum outcome, ECOWAS mediation efforts, or any restrictions on campaigning or candidacies in the final months.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$336,957
Data de Término
23 nov 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Guinea-Bissau’s December 6, 2026 presidential and legislative elections follow the November 2025 coup that halted vote counting after opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory over incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló.** A military transitional authority under General Horta Inta-A Na Man is overseeing the process and has barred itself from running while scheduling an August 30 constitutional referendum that would shift the country toward a stronger presidential system. Dias da Costa, backed by the PAIGC and PRS networks after several major parties were excluded in 2025, holds a narrow lead in trader pricing over Embaló, with the remaining field of independents and minor-party candidates each below 7 percent. Persistent political fragmentation, unresolved disputes from the prior annulled contest, and uncertainty over the referendum’s impact on institutional power keep the top two contenders closely matched. Further separation could emerge from the referendum outcome, ECOWAS mediation efforts, or any restrictions on campaigning or candidacies in the final months.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$336,957
Data de Término
23 nov 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 15%, followed by "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 15¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" has generated $337K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 15%, meaning the market assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.