Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a peak temperature of 30–32°C in Chengdu on May 18 as the most probable outcome, driven by a strengthening subtropical high and clear to partly cloudy conditions that favor daytime heating across the Sichuan basin. Seasonal warming has pushed average May highs to 26–32°C, with late-month values often exceeding 30°C amid rising solar radiation and reduced frontal activity. Recent observations show minimal overnight cooling and moderate humidity levels that limit extreme excursions above 33°C while suppressing sub-29°C readings. Traders are weighting the tight cluster of outcomes near 30–32°C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, though a shift in cloud cover or moisture influx could still alter the final maximum recorded at the official station.