Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models place Chengdu’s May 18 high temperature most likely between 29 °C and 32 °C, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin combined with typical late-spring solar heating and light southwesterly flow. Local basin topography tends to trap warm, moist air, while scattered afternoon convection and variable cloud cover introduce small day-to-day uncertainty that accounts for the closely matched market probabilities around 30–32 °C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated runs from global models expected within the next 24 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.