Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature today, with model runs from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside NiMet guidance, converging around 30–32°C amid the seasonal shift to rainy conditions. Morning observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show temperatures starting near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with high humidity (80–90%), tempered by sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea that cap peak heating. Differentiating factors include timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms—more persistent cloudiness favors 30°C, while clearer intervals allow 31–32°C—historical May averages of 31°C provide context, with urban heat island effects in Lagos adding ~1°C. Hourly updates through 4 p.m. local time could sharpen implied probabilities as convection evolves.