Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following his father's death in strikes, yet he has issued only written or read-out statements without appearing in person, on video, or in audio since then. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed a private two-and-a-half-hour meeting with him on May 7, marking the first senior official acknowledgment of direct contact, while earlier Russian diplomatic comments cited security considerations for the absence. Traders price low near-term probabilities for a photographed or videotaped appearance because regime statements continue via proxies amid ongoing regional tensions, with no scheduled public events announced and historical precedent for new leaders maintaining low visibility during transitions or conflicts. Resolution hinges on verifiable visual evidence by the target date, and any diplomatic summit or domestic address could shift outcomes.