The market prices a 77.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31, reflecting trader consensus on the extended resolution timeline following the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire. Despite current commercial transits running at roughly 5% of pre-crisis averages due to lingering naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and potential mine clearance operations projected to last several months, the seven-month horizon to year-end provides ample runway for diplomatic progress and infrastructure restoration. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral negotiations and joint maritime security assessments that could accelerate tanker flows, while oil and LNG price benchmarks continue to embed these supply-chain risks. Market-implied odds balance persistent geopolitical frictions against historical precedents for chokepoint reopenings, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in aggregating capital-backed views on energy-market recovery.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$136,827 Vol.
$136,827 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$136,827 Vol.
$136,827 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The market prices a 77.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31, reflecting trader consensus on the extended resolution timeline following the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire. Despite current commercial transits running at roughly 5% of pre-crisis averages due to lingering naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and potential mine clearance operations projected to last several months, the seven-month horizon to year-end provides ample runway for diplomatic progress and infrastructure restoration. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral negotiations and joint maritime security assessments that could accelerate tanker flows, while oil and LNG price benchmarks continue to embed these supply-chain risks. Market-implied odds balance persistent geopolitical frictions against historical precedents for chokepoint reopenings, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in aggregating capital-backed views on energy-market recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$136,827Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The market prices a 77.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31, reflecting trader consensus on the extended resolution timeline following the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire. Despite current commercial transits running at roughly 5% of pre-crisis averages due to lingering naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and potential mine clearance operations projected to last several months, the seven-month horizon to year-end provides ample runway for diplomatic progress and infrastructure restoration. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral negotiations and joint maritime security assessments that could accelerate tanker flows, while oil and LNG price benchmarks continue to embed these supply-chain risks. Market-implied odds balance persistent geopolitical frictions against historical precedents for chokepoint reopenings, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in aggregating capital-backed views on energy-market recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$136,827Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market prices a 77.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by December 31, reflecting trader consensus on the extended resolution timeline following the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire. Despite current commercial transits running at roughly 5% of pre-crisis averages due to lingering naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and potential mine clearance operations projected to last several months, the seven-month horizon to year-end provides ample runway for diplomatic progress and infrastructure restoration. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing bilateral negotiations and joint maritime security assessments that could accelerate tanker flows, while oil and LNG price benchmarks continue to embed these supply-chain risks. Market-implied odds balance persistent geopolitical frictions against historical precedents for chokepoint reopenings, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in aggregating capital-backed views on energy-market recovery.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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