Canada’s labor market data through April 2026 show the unemployment rate at 6.9 percent, a six-month high that remains well below the 7.1 percent peak recorded in August and September 2025. Official Statistics Canada releases and private-sector forecasts indicate modest employment gains are expected to resume in the second half of the year, supported by slower labor-force growth and a projected decline toward 6.3 percent by 2027. Market-implied odds of 91 percent for “No” reflect traders’ assessment that annual average and peak monthly readings will stay below prior post-2016 highs outside the pandemic period. Key swing factors include the pace of U.S. tariff effects, Bank of Canada policy adjustments, and any sharper contraction in consumer spending that could push the rate above 7.1 percent before year-end.