National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas today point to a high near 88–90°F under partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly winds and typical May humidity, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 86–89°F outcomes. Afternoon convective heating and minor spreads in GFS and ECMWF model runs create the primary uncertainty between the leading bins, as stronger boundary-layer mixing could push readings into the low 90s while increased cloud cover or earlier precipitation would cap them lower. Historical May averages near 85°F provide context, but today’s observed morning temperatures in the mid-70s and dew points around 70°F indicate limited overnight cooling that favors the upper end of the distribution. Traders are monitoring the next official update and real-time station data from Dallas Love Field for resolution signals.