Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models show Dallas poised for a high near 86–88 °F on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This narrow range explains the near-even split between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, as modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or the timing of any scattered showers can easily shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high at about 85 °F, so today’s outcome hinges on whether surface heating reaches its full potential before any convective development. Updated model guidance and observations through the afternoon will determine whether the market settles on the lower or upper side of this tight cluster.