Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles have converged on a daytime maximum near 25 °C for May 17, establishing the dominant market-implied probability of 99.9 % for that exact outcome. A stable subtropical high-pressure system has promoted widespread subsidence and a moist easterly flow that maintains extensive cloud cover, thereby limiting surface solar heating and keeping temperatures below the May climatological average of 28–31 °C. This setup aligns with current observational trends and model consensus from global ensembles. An unexpected clearing of cloud cover or a late shift to drier southerly steering winds could allow modest additional warming and shift the recorded high into the 26 °C or higher range, though such deviations remain low-probability given the persistent atmospheric conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 17 мая?
25°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$266,406 Объем
$266,406 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$266,406 Объем
$266,406 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles have converged on a daytime maximum near 25 °C for May 17, establishing the dominant market-implied probability of 99.9 % for that exact outcome. A stable subtropical high-pressure system has promoted widespread subsidence and a moist easterly flow that maintains extensive cloud cover, thereby limiting surface solar heating and keeping temperatures below the May climatological average of 28–31 °C. This setup aligns with current observational trends and model consensus from global ensembles. An unexpected clearing of cloud cover or a late shift to drier southerly steering winds could allow modest additional warming and shift the recorded high into the 26 °C or higher range, though such deviations remain low-probability given the persistent atmospheric conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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