Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Лондоне 17 мая?
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
17°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$157,376 Объем
$157,376 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
17°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$157,376 Объем
$157,376 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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