Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, have kept regional airspace restrictions in focus for traders. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure of the Tel Aviv FIR on February 28 amid heightened alerts and then extended wartime NOTAMs with gradual reopenings in early March and capacity limits persisting into mid-April. Recent escalations around energy infrastructure and diplomatic signaling continue to shape assessments of future security-driven closures, with traders weighing the risk of renewed direct confrontations or proxy actions that could prompt another shutdown before scheduled dates. Historical patterns show such measures typically last days to weeks during active conflict phases, subject to security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$907,244 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
May 31
37%
30 июня
53%
$907,244 Объем
May 31
$402,083 Объем
37%
30 июня
$9,921 Объем
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, have kept regional airspace restrictions in focus for traders. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure of the Tel Aviv FIR on February 28 amid heightened alerts and then extended wartime NOTAMs with gradual reopenings in early March and capacity limits persisting into mid-April. Recent escalations around energy infrastructure and diplomatic signaling continue to shape assessments of future security-driven closures, with traders weighing the risk of renewed direct confrontations or proxy actions that could prompt another shutdown before scheduled dates. Historical patterns show such measures typically last days to weeks during active conflict phases, subject to security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Объем
$907,244Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, have kept regional airspace restrictions in focus for traders. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure of the Tel Aviv FIR on February 28 amid heightened alerts and then extended wartime NOTAMs with gradual reopenings in early March and capacity limits persisting into mid-April. Recent escalations around energy infrastructure and diplomatic signaling continue to shape assessments of future security-driven closures, with traders weighing the risk of renewed direct confrontations or proxy actions that could prompt another shutdown before scheduled dates. Historical patterns show such measures typically last days to weeks during active conflict phases, subject to security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$907,244Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, have kept regional airspace restrictions in focus for traders. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure of the Tel Aviv FIR on February 28 amid heightened alerts and then extended wartime NOTAMs with gradual reopenings in early March and capacity limits persisting into mid-April. Recent escalations around energy infrastructure and diplomatic signaling continue to shape assessments of future security-driven closures, with traders weighing the risk of renewed direct confrontations or proxy actions that could prompt another shutdown before scheduled dates. Historical patterns show such measures typically last days to weeks during active conflict phases, subject to security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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