Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system have driven a sharp nocturnal temperature drop across the Madrid region on August 28, 2026, with official forecasts and station observations converging on a daily minimum of 10°C. This outcome reflects radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds, consistent with AEMET and European model guidance showing the mercury bottoming near dawn after an anomalously cool daytime maximum around 21–25°C—well below seasonal normals of 30–31°C. Historical analogs for late-August minima in central Spain rarely dip this low without synoptic forcing, yet current observations confirm the trend. The market’s 99.6% implied probability on exactly 10°C incorporates this model consensus and real-time data; the only realistic challenges would involve a final official reading shifting to 9°C or 11°C from station-specific microclimates, sensor calibration, or minor forecast adjustments before resolution.