Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
<4 млн кв км 57%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 13.6%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 12.7%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 8.1%
$48,619 Объем
$48,619 Объем
1 окт. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
57%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
14%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
13%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
8%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
6%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
2%
5+ млн кв. км
2%
<4 млн кв км 57%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 13.6%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 12.7%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 8.1%
$48,619 Объем
$48,619 Объем
1 окт. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
$25,113 Объем
57%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
$3,465 Объем
14%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
$1,313 Объем
13%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
$1,387 Объем
8%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
$2,948 Объем
6%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
$1,199 Объем
2%
5+ млн кв. км
$13,195 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$48,619Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$48,619Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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