US-Iran negotiations for a permanent peace deal remain deadlocked amid the 2026 war, with a fragile April 8 ceasefire—mediated by Pakistan—riddled by violations, including recent Strait of Hormuz clashes and a US naval blockade imposed April 13 to pressure Tehran. The latest US one-page memorandum proposes formally ending hostilities to enable 30-60 days of talks on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and waterway security, but Iran views it as a wish-list ignoring demands for full asset releases and proxy de-escalation. President Trump's May 13 summit with China's Xi Jinping seeks Beijing's leverage on Iran, while VP Vance claims progress without details. Deep divides on uranium enrichment and missiles make a deal by May 15 highly unlikely, per trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоDespite diplomatic efforts and paused naval operations, no official US or Iranian confirmation of a permanent peace deal was made, keeping the market’s probability for May 15
May 15 rises to 2%1%
Despite diplomatic efforts and paused naval operations, no official US or Iranian confirmation of a permanent peace deal was made, keeping the market’s probability for May 15 resolution very low at 2%
No new official announcements or confirmations of a permanent peace deal from either the US or Iran, solidifying market consensus that no deal will be reached by May 13, keeping
No new official announcements or confirmations of a permanent peace deal from either the US or Iran, solidifying market consensus that no deal will be reached by May 13, keeping the
President Trump extends the ceasefire only until Iran submits a permanent peace proposal, effectively removing immediate pressure on Tehran and signaling stalled negotiations;
May 13 dips to 0%2%
market confidence collapses to 0%
Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, publicly express doubt about an imminent permanent peace deal, and no formal written agreement or clear public confirmation emerges,
May 13 drops to 1%8%
Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, publicly express doubt about an imminent permanent peace deal, and no formal written agreement or clear public confirmation emerges, leading to a sharp
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope for a lasting agreement, but ongoing military incidents and lack of public confirmation of a permanent peace deal caused
May 15 drops to 3%5%
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope for a lasting agreement, but ongoing military incidents and lack of public confirmation of a permanent peace deal caused market confidence to collapse
Iran sends its response to the U.S.
May 11 dips to 1%3%
cease‑fire proposal via Pakistani mediators, but President Donald Trump declares the offer “totally unacceptable” and rejects it
The Trump administration’s framework for a permanent peace deal is dismissed as “unacceptable,” with officials stating the U.S.
May 11 dips to 0%1%
will not move forward on the plan
Al Jazeera noted that, despite the pause, the U.S.
December 31 dips to 68%2%
still demanded Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait, tempering optimism and nudging the
Exchange of fire occurs in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran reviewing a US peace proposal;
June 30 dips to 54%2%
Trump warns of severe military action if Iran does not agree quickly, increasing uncertainty
Iran reviews a US peace proposal including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear curbs, but President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Tehran’s demands and insists on
May 13 dips to 13%4%
Iran reviews a US peace proposal including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear curbs, but President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Tehran’s demands and insists on ironclad nuclear commitments, signaling stalled progress and causing further
Qatar’s prime minister meets U.S.
May 11 dips to 4%2%
Vice‑President JD Vance in Washington to discuss renewed diplomacy, but the focus shifts to intensive talks on Israel‑Lebanon borders, indicating U.S. attention is moving away from a US‑Iran settlement
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a
May 13 dips to 9%2%
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a possible short‑term cease‑fire rather than a lasting peace
The New York Times reported U.S.
December 31 dips to 70%4%
forces struck Iranian targets after Iran fired on U.S. warships, and the escort mission was resumed, causing the market to retreat
Despite ceasefire stalemate, Trump announces a new effort to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz;
June 30 surges to 56%17%
Iranian state media reports a new peace offer to Pakistan, briefly boosting optimism
Iran announced it was reviewing a U.S.
May 13 dips to 11%2%
peace proposal that would formally end the war but left key U.S. demands (nuclear suspension, Hormuz reopening) unresolved, dampening hopes for an immediate permanent deal
U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets after Iran allegedly fired on U.S.
May 13 drops to 13%9%
warships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump warned of further action unless Tehran accepted a peace offer
US strikes Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on American destroyers, escalating military tensions despite ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan
May 13 drops to 11%11%
US strikes Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on American destroyers, escalating military tensions despite ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman; this heightened conflict risk likely contributed to early
Iran publicly stated it was reviewing a US peace proposal that could formally end the war, but key US demands remained unaddressed;
May 15 jumps to 15%11%
Trump paused a naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz citing progress in talks
US pauses naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz citing progress in talks;
May 31 jumps to 28%9%
Iran reviews US peace proposal but key demands remain unresolved
Reuters reported Iran was formally reviewing a U.S.
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
peace proposal that would end the war, while Trump again paused the escort mission, pushing market confidence to its peak
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest peace offer;
May 31 dips to 19%3%
the US side signals likely rejection, further eroding hopes for a permanent deal
Iran says it has received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
response to its latest peace offer, but no public acceptance is given, keeping market sentiment low
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest offer;
May 31 dips to 33%1%
US officials indicate the proposal will likely be rejected
President Trump publicly states he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest offer and warns the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 31%22%
may resume attacks, driving the
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 34%1%
Trump publicly says he is “not satisfied,” dampening hopes for a permanent deal
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 22%2%
Trump publicly declares he is “not satisfied” and doubts the offer
No new definitive agreement is announced;
April 30 dips to 0%1%
analysts note the stalemate and the imminent cease‑fire expiry, driving the
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent
May 15 rises to 8%1%
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent cease‑fire was unlikely
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline,
May 15 dips to 8%2%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline, pushing the Yes probability down to a low‑single‑digit level
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could
May 15 dips to 7%3%
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could be ratified
CNN notes mediators expect a revised Iranian peace proposal “within days”;
June 30 rises to 44%3%
the possibility of a new offer nudges the odds slightly higher
Trump scrubs a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, signaling a hardening U.S.
April 30 drops to 1%6%
stance and further diminishing prospects for a permanent deal
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting
May 15 dips to 10%2%
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting agreement
President Trump announced that U.S.
May 15 dips to 10%2%
negotiators would travel to Pakistan for peace talks, but the same day Vice‑President JD Vance’s planned Islamabad trip was called off, underscoring a sudden diplomatic retreat and further dampening market optimism
President Trump announced efforts to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, signaling cautious optimism about ending
May 15 dips to 11%4%
President Trump announced efforts to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, signaling cautious optimism about ending hostilities
Iran, via Pakistani mediators, submits a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear talks;
April 30 plunges to 7%34%
the U.S. rejects it as incomplete, sending the market sharply lower
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was
May 15 dips to 12%2%
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was collapsing and that a permanent peace pact was unlikely
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a
May 15 dips to 14%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a diplomatic path but had not secured a deal
President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but rejected its “no‑nuclear‑talks” terms, signalling U.S.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
reluctance to accept a permanent deal
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope
June 30 drops to 47%8%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope alive
Iran submits a 14‑point proposal via Pakistani mediators, but the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 46%19%
says it does not address nuclear issues, causing the market to retreat
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal
June 30 plunges to 54%28%
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal document
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give Iran more time to present a unified proposal, but stresses the U.S.
June 30 dips to 61%4%
blockade will remain, tempering optimism
US Navy intercepts Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska amid ongoing tensions;
June 30 plunges to 48%23%
ceasefire deadline nears with no definitive peace deal announced, raising doubts about lasting peace
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US has “seen some progress” from Iran;
May 31 dips to 62%2%
however, Trump extends the naval blockade, prompting Iran to re‑impose restrictions
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 rises to 64%1%
Trump declares “peace talks are all but complete”
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April high
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr
June 30 jumps to 82%11%
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr 13 → Apr 15)
President Trump publicly backs the cease‑fire and says the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 82%14%
will hold fire “until Iran presents a unified proposal,” raising expectations of a lasting deal
US Vice‑President JD Vance returns from Islamabad saying talks produced no agreement;
May 31 surges to 57%30%
Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports
U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for high‑level talks;
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
early reports suggest gaps remain, prompting market skepticism
Pakistan invites both delegations to Islamabad for “conclusive” talks;
May 31 drops to 27%10%
Trump hails the move as “very close to stitching a deal”
Israel agrees to hold direct talks with Lebanon under US pressure but states the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon;
June 30 drops to 63%7%
the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite ceasefire terms, causing uncertainty
US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, with Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and begin peace negotiations in Islamabad;
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump expresses optimism about a definitive long-term peace agreement
Iran and the United States announce a two‑week cease‑fire and Iran says the U.S.
June 30 surges to 73%32%
has accepted its 10‑point peace plan, sparking optimism that a permanent deal could follow
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