The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security forces suppressing earlier protests and maintaining institutional control despite US-Israeli strikes and a naval blockade that began in April. As of mid-May 2026, officials have emphasized national unity, economic resource preservation, and Basij mobilization to counter expected shortages and unrest risks, reflecting preparations that have stabilized the situation ahead of the June 30 resolution date. Traders assign a 95.5% probability to the regime surviving due to these factors and the absence of coordinated opposition momentum or elite defections. Realistic shifts could stem from rapid escalation in the blockade, intensified protests over inflation and job losses, or external diplomatic breakthroughs that alter internal dynamics before the deadline.