**Forecast models and recent observations position 68-69°F as the most likely high for San Francisco on September 1, 2026, with market-implied odds of 36.5% reflecting that consensus.** As of August 30, short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and ensemble outputs consistently projects a daytime maximum near 64–68°F under partly cloudy skies, with southwest winds of 5–15 mph and minimal marine-layer suppression. This places the highest-probability bin (68-69°F) squarely within the expected range, while adjacent outcomes (66-67°F at 25% and 70-71°F at 23.5%) capture the typical uncertainty band in coastal temperature forecasts. San Francisco’s Mediterranean-marine climate, moderated by the cold California Current and frequent onshore flow, keeps September 1 highs averaging ~69.6°F historically, rarely exceeding the low 70s without strong offshore warming. Current conditions show no anomalous ridge or heat-advection pattern, and precipitation chances remain low (~6%), supporting stable, moderate readings. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus and climatological baseline, with the tight clustering of leading probabilities underscoring the narrow forecast envelope two days before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
68-69°F 37%
66-67°F 25%
70-71°F 24%
64-65°F 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 37%
66-67°F 25%
70-71°F 24%
64-65°F 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
59°F or below
$136 ปริมาณ
<1%
60-61°F
$15 ปริมาณ
3%
62-63°F
$26 ปริมาณ
3%
64-65°F
$32 ปริมาณ
8%
66-67°F
$131 ปริมาณ
25%
68-69°F
$190 ปริมาณ
37%
70-71°F
$1 ปริมาณ
24%
72-73°F
$127 ปริมาณ
6%
74-75°F
$464 ปริมาณ
1%
76-77°F
$6 ปริมาณ
2%
78°F or higher
$1 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and recent observations position 68-69°F as the most likely high for San Francisco on September 1, 2026, with market-implied odds of 36.5% reflecting that consensus.**
As of August 30, short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and ensemble outputs consistently projects a daytime maximum near 64–68°F under partly cloudy skies, with southwest winds of 5–15 mph and minimal marine-layer suppression. This places the highest-probability bin (68-69°F) squarely within the expected range, while adjacent outcomes (66-67°F at 25% and 70-71°F at 23.5%) capture the typical uncertainty band in coastal temperature forecasts.
San Francisco’s Mediterranean-marine climate, moderated by the cold California Current and frequent onshore flow, keeps September 1 highs averaging ~69.6°F historically, rarely exceeding the low 70s without strong offshore warming. Current conditions show no anomalous ridge or heat-advection pattern, and precipitation chances remain low (~6%), supporting stable, moderate readings. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus and climatological baseline, with the tight clustering of leading probabilities underscoring the narrow forecast envelope two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,130วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and recent observations position 68-69°F as the most likely high for San Francisco on September 1, 2026, with market-implied odds of 36.5% reflecting that consensus.**
As of August 30, short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and ensemble outputs consistently projects a daytime maximum near 64–68°F under partly cloudy skies, with southwest winds of 5–15 mph and minimal marine-layer suppression. This places the highest-probability bin (68-69°F) squarely within the expected range, while adjacent outcomes (66-67°F at 25% and 70-71°F at 23.5%) capture the typical uncertainty band in coastal temperature forecasts.
San Francisco’s Mediterranean-marine climate, moderated by the cold California Current and frequent onshore flow, keeps September 1 highs averaging ~69.6°F historically, rarely exceeding the low 70s without strong offshore warming. Current conditions show no anomalous ridge or heat-advection pattern, and precipitation chances remain low (~6%), supporting stable, moderate readings. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus and climatological baseline, with the tight clustering of leading probabilities underscoring the narrow forecast envelope two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,130วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and recent observations position 68-69°F as the most likely high for San Francisco on September 1, 2026, with market-implied odds of 36.5% reflecting that consensus.** As of August 30, short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and ensemble outputs consistently projects a daytime maximum near 64–68°F under partly cloudy skies, with southwest winds of 5–15 mph and minimal marine-layer suppression. This places the highest-probability bin (68-69°F) squarely within the expected range, while adjacent outcomes (66-67°F at 25% and 70-71°F at 23.5%) capture the typical uncertainty band in coastal temperature forecasts. San Francisco’s Mediterranean-marine climate, moderated by the cold California Current and frequent onshore flow, keeps September 1 highs averaging ~69.6°F historically, rarely exceeding the low 70s without strong offshore warming. Current conditions show no anomalous ridge or heat-advection pattern, and precipitation chances remain low (~6%), supporting stable, moderate readings. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus and climatological baseline, with the tight clustering of leading probabilities underscoring the narrow forecast envelope two days before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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