Robust capital positions and the Federal Reserve’s 2026 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test results underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds against a major U.S. bank bailout before 2027. The 32 tested institutions absorbed a projected $708 billion in losses under a severe recession scenario, with aggregate CET1 ratios declining just 1.6 percentage points to a minimum of 11.2%—the smallest drop in seven years—while remaining well above the 4.5% regulatory floor. Third-quarter 2026 earnings reinforced this resilience, with leading banks reporting solid net interest income, loan growth, and returns on tangible common equity amid stable credit quality. Stress capital buffers remain frozen through October 2027, limiting near-term regulatory pressure. Still, an unexpectedly sharp downturn triggering outsized commercial real estate or consumer credit losses, or a liquidity event among undercapitalized regionals, could alter the path to resolution.