This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
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"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่มี 4 ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นไปได้ โดยนักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นตามสิ่งที่เชื่อว่าจะเกิดขึ้น ผลลัพธ์ที่นำอยู่ในปัจจุบันคือ "Oil Sanction Relief" ที่ 14% ตามด้วย "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" ที่ 14% ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ ตัวอย่างเช่น หุ้นที่มีราคา 14¢ หมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 14% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล
ณ วันนี้ "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" มีปริมาณการซื้อขายรวม $960K ตั้งแต่ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ Apr 29, 2026 ระดับการซื้อขายนี้สะท้อนถึงการมีส่วนร่วมอย่างมากจากชุมชน Polymarket และช่วยให้อัตราปัจจุบันได้รับข้อมูลจากผู้เข้าร่วมตลาดจำนวนมาก คุณสามารถติดตามการเคลื่อนไหวของราคาแบบสดและเทรดผลลัพธ์ใดก็ได้จากหน้านี้โดยตรง
ในการเทรด "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ดู 4 ผลลัพธ์ที่มีในหน้านี้ แต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงราคาปัจจุบันที่เป็นตัวแทนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเชื่อว่ามีโอกาสสูงสุด เลือก "Yes" เพื่อเทรดสนับสนุนหรือ "No" เพื่อเทรดคัดค้าน ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเลือกถูกต้องเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $1 ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง จ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน
ตัวเต็งปัจจุบันสำหรับ "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" คือ "Oil Sanction Relief" ที่ 14% ซึ่งหมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 14% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น ผลลัพธ์ที่ตามมาคือ "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" ที่ 14% อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ตามที่นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้น จึงสะท้อนมุมมองรวมล่าสุดว่าอะไรมีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นมากที่สุด กลับมาดูบ่อยๆ หรือบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อติดตามว่าอัตราเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไรเมื่อมีข้อมูลใหม่
กฎการตัดสินผลของ "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้
ได้เลย คุณไม่ต้องเทรดก็ติดตามข้อมูลได้ หน้านี้ทำหน้าที่เป็นตัวติดตามสดสำหรับ "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ความน่าจะเป็นของผลลัพธ์อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์เมื่อมีการเทรดใหม่เข้ามา คุณสามารถบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้และดูส่วนความคิดเห็นเพื่ออ่านว่านักเทรดคนอื่นพูดถึงอะไร คุณยังใช้ตัวกรองช่วงเวลาบนกราฟเพื่อดูว่าอัตราเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไรตามเวลา เป็นหน้าต่างเรียลไทม์ฟรีเพื่อดูว่าตลาดคาดว่าอะไรจะเกิดขึ้น
อัตราของ Polymarket ถูกกำหนดโดยนักเทรดจริงที่ลงเงินจริงตามความเชื่อ ซึ่งมักให้การทำนายที่แม่นยำ ด้วยปริมาณการซื้อขาย $960K ใน "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ราคาเหล่านี้รวบรวมความรู้และความเชื่อมั่นของผู้เข้าร่วมหลายพันคน ซึ่งมักแม่นยำกว่าโพล การคาดการณ์ของผู้เชี่ยวชาญ และแบบสำรวจแบบดั้งเดิม ตลาดทำนายผลอย่าง Polymarket มีประวัติความแม่นยำที่ดี โดยเฉพาะเมื่อเหตุการณ์ใกล้ถึงวันตัดสินผล ตัวอย่างเช่น Polymarket มีคะแนนความแม่นยำหนึ่งเดือนอยู่ที่ 94% สำหรับสถิติล่าสุดเกี่ยวกับความแม่นยำในการทำนายของ Polymarket เยี่ยมชมหน้าความแม่นยำ บน Polymarket
เพื่อเริ่มเทรด "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" สมัครบัญชี Polymarket ฟรีและเติมเงินด้วยคริปโต บัตรเครดิตหรือเดบิต หรือโอนจากธนาคาร เมื่อบัญชีมีเงินแล้ว กลับมาที่หน้านี้ เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่ต้องการเทรด ใส่จำนวนเงิน แล้วกด "Trade" หากคุณเพิ่งเริ่มใช้ตลาดทำนายผล คลิกลิงก์ "วิธีการทำงาน" ด้านบนของหน้า Polymarket เพื่อดูขั้นตอนการเทรดอย่างง่าย
ตลาด "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" มีกำหนดตัดสินผลประมาณ May 31, 2026 นั่นหมายความว่าการซื้อขายยังเปิดอยู่และอัตราจะยังเปลี่ยนแปลงเมื่อมีข้อมูลใหม่จนถึงวันนั้น เวลาตัดสินผลที่แน่นอนขึ้นอยู่กับว่าผลลัพธ์อย่างเป็นทางการจะออกเมื่อไหร่ ตามที่ระบุไว้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้
ตลาด "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" มีชุมชนที่คึกคักด้วย 150 ความคิดเห็นที่นักเทรดแชร์การวิเคราะห์ ถกเถียงผลลัพธ์ และพูดคุยเกี่ยวกับพัฒนาการล่าสุด เลื่อนลงไปที่ส่วนความคิดเห็นด้านล่างเพื่ออ่านว่าผู้เข้าร่วมคนอื่นคิดอย่างไร คุณยังสามารถกรองตาม "ผู้ถือรายใหญ่" เพื่อดูว่านักเทรดรายใหญ่ของตลาดมีสถานะอย่างไร หรือดูแท็บ "กิจกรรม" สำหรับฟีดการเทรดแบบเรียลไทม์
Polymarket เป็นตลาดทำนายผลที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก ที่คุณสามารถติดตามข้อมูลและทำกำไรจากความรู้ของคุณเกี่ยวกับเหตุการณ์ในโลกจริง นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นในผลลัพธ์ของหัวข้อต่างๆ ตั้งแต่การเมืองและการเลือกตั้ง ไปจนถึงคริปโต การเงิน กีฬา เทคโนโลยี และวัฒนธรรม รวมถึงตลาดอย่าง "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ที่มีความเชื่อมั่นทางการเงินหนุนหลัง ซึ่งมักให้สัญญาณที่เร็วและแม่นยำกว่าโพล ผู้เชี่ยวชาญ หรือแบบสำรวจแบบดั้งเดิม
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