European leaders have anchored trader consensus on a 95.9 percent chance of no strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany through June 30 by repeatedly framing their role as defensive only within the broader US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February. Joint statements from Presidents Macron and Starmer and Chancellor Merz have condemned Iranian missile and drone barrages while committing solely to protecting shipping lanes and regional allies through deployments such as HMS Dragon and the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, without authorizing offensive operations against Iranian territory. This positioning reflects diplomatic priority on negotiations, domestic political constraints against deeper involvement, and economic risks tied to further oil-market disruption. A direct Iranian attack on European forces or bases remains the clearest catalyst that could reopen the possibility of escalation before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วฝรั่งเศสสหราชอาณาจักรหรือเยอรมนีจะโจมตีอิหร่านภายในวันที่ 30 มิถุนายนหรือไม่?
ฝรั่งเศสสหราชอาณาจักรหรือเยอรมนีจะโจมตีอิหร่านภายในวันที่ 30 มิถุนายนหรือไม่?
ใช่
$1,372,220 ปริมาณ
$1,372,220 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
ใช่
$1,372,220 ปริมาณ
$1,372,220 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have anchored trader consensus on a 95.9 percent chance of no strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany through June 30 by repeatedly framing their role as defensive only within the broader US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February. Joint statements from Presidents Macron and Starmer and Chancellor Merz have condemned Iranian missile and drone barrages while committing solely to protecting shipping lanes and regional allies through deployments such as HMS Dragon and the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, without authorizing offensive operations against Iranian territory. This positioning reflects diplomatic priority on negotiations, domestic political constraints against deeper involvement, and economic risks tied to further oil-market disruption. A direct Iranian attack on European forces or bases remains the clearest catalyst that could reopen the possibility of escalation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,372,220วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have anchored trader consensus on a 95.9 percent chance of no strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany through June 30 by repeatedly framing their role as defensive only within the broader US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February. Joint statements from Presidents Macron and Starmer and Chancellor Merz have condemned Iranian missile and drone barrages while committing solely to protecting shipping lanes and regional allies through deployments such as HMS Dragon and the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, without authorizing offensive operations against Iranian territory. This positioning reflects diplomatic priority on negotiations, domestic political constraints against deeper involvement, and economic risks tied to further oil-market disruption. A direct Iranian attack on European forces or bases remains the clearest catalyst that could reopen the possibility of escalation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,372,220วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders have anchored trader consensus on a 95.9 percent chance of no strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany through June 30 by repeatedly framing their role as defensive only within the broader US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February. Joint statements from Presidents Macron and Starmer and Chancellor Merz have condemned Iranian missile and drone barrages while committing solely to protecting shipping lanes and regional allies through deployments such as HMS Dragon and the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, without authorizing offensive operations against Iranian territory. This positioning reflects diplomatic priority on negotiations, domestic political constraints against deeper involvement, and economic risks tied to further oil-market disruption. A direct Iranian attack on European forces or bases remains the clearest catalyst that could reopen the possibility of escalation before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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