Below-normal activity forecasted for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University and other models project 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major hurricanes, with the probability of at least one major (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall at 32%—well below the long-term average. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase vertical wind shear and limit rapid intensification needed for Category 5 strength at landfall. Historical data reinforce this outlook: only three confirmed Category 5 U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1900, the most recent in 2018. National Hurricane Center seasonal monitoring and updated model runs through summer will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity forecasted for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University and other models project 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major hurricanes, with the probability of at least one major (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall at 32%—well below the long-term average. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase vertical wind shear and limit rapid intensification needed for Category 5 strength at landfall. Historical data reinforce this outlook: only three confirmed Category 5 U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1900, the most recent in 2018. National Hurricane Center seasonal monitoring and updated model runs through summer will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$135,286Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity forecasted for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University and other models project 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major hurricanes, with the probability of at least one major (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall at 32%—well below the long-term average. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase vertical wind shear and limit rapid intensification needed for Category 5 strength at landfall. Historical data reinforce this outlook: only three confirmed Category 5 U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1900, the most recent in 2018. National Hurricane Center seasonal monitoring and updated model runs through summer will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$135,286Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal activity forecasted for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University and other models project 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major hurricanes, with the probability of at least one major (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall at 32%—well below the long-term average. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase vertical wind shear and limit rapid intensification needed for Category 5 strength at landfall. Historical data reinforce this outlook: only three confirmed Category 5 U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1900, the most recent in 2018. National Hurricane Center seasonal monitoring and updated model runs through summer will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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