Trader consensus favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 because such events remain rare on a global scale, with Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. No qualifying eruption—defined as at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km—has occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites such as Semeru, Sheveluch, and Kīlauea has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and effusive flows, with no recent model runs or monitoring data indicating imminent escalation. Key variables that could shift odds include new magmatic recharge signals or revised explosivity assessments from observatories before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
Скільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
0 61%
1 35%
2 3.9%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Обс.
$1,079,004 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 3.9%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Обс.
$1,079,004 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,398 Обс.
61%
1
$260,191 Обс.
35%
2
$32,241 Обс.
4%
3
$26,240 Обс.
1%
4
$24,441 Обс.
<1%
5+
$258,493 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 because such events remain rare on a global scale, with Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. No qualifying eruption—defined as at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km—has occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites such as Semeru, Sheveluch, and Kīlauea has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and effusive flows, with no recent model runs or monitoring data indicating imminent escalation. Key variables that could shift odds include new magmatic recharge signals or revised explosivity assessments from observatories before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,079,004Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 because such events remain rare on a global scale, with Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. No qualifying eruption—defined as at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km—has occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites such as Semeru, Sheveluch, and Kīlauea has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and effusive flows, with no recent model runs or monitoring data indicating imminent escalation. Key variables that could shift odds include new magmatic recharge signals or revised explosivity assessments from observatories before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,079,004Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 because such events remain rare on a global scale, with Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. No qualifying eruption—defined as at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km—has occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites such as Semeru, Sheveluch, and Kīlauea has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and effusive flows, with no recent model runs or monitoring data indicating imminent escalation. Key variables that could shift odds include new magmatic recharge signals or revised explosivity assessments from observatories before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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