Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Обс.
$12,232 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
99%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Обс.
$12,232 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
$297 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$461 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$600 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$604 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$2,197 Обс.
1%
23°C
$1,670 Обс.
1%
24°C
$2,388 Обс.
99%
25°C
$2,247 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$912 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$497 Обс.
<1%
28°C or higher
$359 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$12,232Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$12,232Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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