The near-certain market-implied odds against hurricane formation by May 31 arise from the Atlantic basin’s established climatology, where the official season begins June 1 and pre-season systems remain statistically rare. Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean have not yet reached the sustained 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for organized development, while upper-level wind shear continues to inhibit vertical structure. National Hurricane Center monitoring through mid-May shows no active tropical waves or disturbances with realistic intensification potential before month-end. Although an anomalous reduction in shear combined with a sudden warm-water pulse could still allow formation in the final two weeks, such conditions have occurred in fewer than 5 % of historical years, aligning with the strong trader consensus on the “no” outcome.