The market-implied odds for a 5-kiloton or greater bolide in 2026 rest on the low annual frequency of such atmospheric impacts, which NASA CNEOS fireball records show occur roughly once every one to two years on average. No qualifying event has registered so far this year despite an unusual surge in large fireballs during the first quarter, including a March 17 daytime bolide over Ohio that released only 0.25 kt. Ongoing observations from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks confirm no known near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt threat, with small undetected asteroids remaining the only realistic source. Traders are therefore weighting the remaining seven months against historical patterns and the absence of any recent energy spikes above the threshold.