The 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings reflects the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range through July amid elevated PCE inflation readings near 3.3–3.7% and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Recent July nonfarm payrolls weakness tempered near-term hike odds but did not shift the baseline toward cuts, consistent with FOMC communications prioritizing price stability over easing and the June dot plot’s higher year-end median projection. Trader consensus prices limited scope for a September cut absent material downside surprises in upcoming August CPI or employment data, while the low 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores the narrow path for any easing this cycle.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$739,447 KL.
$739,447 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
23%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$739,447 KL.
$739,447 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,325 KL.
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$73,258 KL.
<1%
Other
$319,988 KL.
23%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings reflects the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range through July amid elevated PCE inflation readings near 3.3–3.7% and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Recent July nonfarm payrolls weakness tempered near-term hike odds but did not shift the baseline toward cuts, consistent with FOMC communications prioritizing price stability over easing and the June dot plot’s higher year-end median projection. Trader consensus prices limited scope for a September cut absent material downside surprises in upcoming August CPI or employment data, while the low 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores the narrow path for any easing this cycle.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$739,447Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings reflects the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range through July amid elevated PCE inflation readings near 3.3–3.7% and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Recent July nonfarm payrolls weakness tempered near-term hike odds but did not shift the baseline toward cuts, consistent with FOMC communications prioritizing price stability over easing and the June dot plot’s higher year-end median projection. Trader consensus prices limited scope for a September cut absent material downside surprises in upcoming August CPI or employment data, while the low 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores the narrow path for any easing this cycle.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$739,447Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings reflects the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range through July amid elevated PCE inflation readings near 3.3–3.7% and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Recent July nonfarm payrolls weakness tempered near-term hike odds but did not shift the baseline toward cuts, consistent with FOMC communications prioritizing price stability over easing and the June dot plot’s higher year-end median projection. Trader consensus prices limited scope for a September cut absent material downside surprises in upcoming August CPI or employment data, while the low 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores the narrow path for any easing this cycle.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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