Traders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 61%
Other 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$26,509 KL.
$26,509 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
61%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
37%
Pause–Pause–Pause 61%
Other 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$26,509 KL.
$26,509 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$6,841 KL.
61%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$789 KL.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$550 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$635 KL.
<1%
Other
$10,044 KL.
37%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,509Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$26,509Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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