Recent FOMC meetings have reinforced trader expectations for consecutive holds, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in both its June and July 2026 decisions amid year-over-year PCE inflation near 3.5%. Elevated price pressures, including oil-driven spikes, and a divided committee—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike in July—have shifted focus to the September 15–16 meeting, where incoming July and August CPI data will shape whether the majority sustains its patient stance or pivots. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 76.5%, reflecting the base case of no change through the third quarter, while the 23% probability on Other outcomes captures risks of a September hike amid hawkish signals and the slim 0.5% chance of an earlier cut. Upcoming September CPI and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 77%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,184 KL.
$744,184 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 77%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,184 KL.
$744,184 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,888 KL.
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$77,145 KL.
1%
Other
$320,274 KL.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC meetings have reinforced trader expectations for consecutive holds, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in both its June and July 2026 decisions amid year-over-year PCE inflation near 3.5%. Elevated price pressures, including oil-driven spikes, and a divided committee—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike in July—have shifted focus to the September 15–16 meeting, where incoming July and August CPI data will shape whether the majority sustains its patient stance or pivots. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 76.5%, reflecting the base case of no change through the third quarter, while the 23% probability on Other outcomes captures risks of a September hike amid hawkish signals and the slim 0.5% chance of an earlier cut. Upcoming September CPI and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$744,184Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC meetings have reinforced trader expectations for consecutive holds, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in both its June and July 2026 decisions amid year-over-year PCE inflation near 3.5%. Elevated price pressures, including oil-driven spikes, and a divided committee—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike in July—have shifted focus to the September 15–16 meeting, where incoming July and August CPI data will shape whether the majority sustains its patient stance or pivots. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 76.5%, reflecting the base case of no change through the third quarter, while the 23% probability on Other outcomes captures risks of a September hike amid hawkish signals and the slim 0.5% chance of an earlier cut. Upcoming September CPI and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$744,184Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC meetings have reinforced trader expectations for consecutive holds, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in both its June and July 2026 decisions amid year-over-year PCE inflation near 3.5%. Elevated price pressures, including oil-driven spikes, and a divided committee—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike in July—have shifted focus to the September 15–16 meeting, where incoming July and August CPI data will shape whether the majority sustains its patient stance or pivots. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 76.5%, reflecting the base case of no change through the third quarter, while the 23% probability on Other outcomes captures risks of a September hike amid hawkish signals and the slim 0.5% chance of an earlier cut. Upcoming September CPI and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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