New People enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding 15–16 seats after clearing the threshold in 2021 with 5.3 percent of the party-list vote. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VCIOM place the party at 8–11 percent, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16 percent among decided voters; even the upper end projects roughly 20–30 proportional seats plus limited single-mandate gains. The party has fielded candidates in only 83 single-member districts and operates within Russia’s managed multiparty system, where United Russia dominates both list and district contests. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a modest potential boost, yet no developments have altered the structural ceiling that keeps most trader consensus below 35 total seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<35 86%
35–44 12.4%
45–54 2.6%
85+ <1%
$27,356 KL.
$27,356 KL.
<35
86%
35–44
12%
45–54
3%
55–64
1%
65–74
<1%
75–84
1%
85+
1%
<35 86%
35–44 12.4%
45–54 2.6%
85+ <1%
$27,356 KL.
$27,356 KL.
<35
86%
35–44
12%
45–54
3%
55–64
1%
65–74
<1%
75–84
1%
85+
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Thị trường mở: Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...New People enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding 15–16 seats after clearing the threshold in 2021 with 5.3 percent of the party-list vote. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VCIOM place the party at 8–11 percent, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16 percent among decided voters; even the upper end projects roughly 20–30 proportional seats plus limited single-mandate gains. The party has fielded candidates in only 83 single-member districts and operates within Russia’s managed multiparty system, where United Russia dominates both list and district contests. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a modest potential boost, yet no developments have altered the structural ceiling that keeps most trader consensus below 35 total seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
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