Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, rooted in the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent retaliatory actions, continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. A fragile ceasefire announced in April has allowed partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and rescue flights, yet restrictions persist with capacity limits and security reviews. European carriers including Lufthansa have signaled gradual June resumptions following safety assessments, while EASA has extended conflict-zone advisories through late May amid uncertainty over missile threats and diplomatic signals. These developments have tempered immediate closure risks, though any escalation in military alerts or official NOTAM extensions could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$880,594 KL.
May 31, 2026
May 31
31%
June 30
49%
$880,594 KL.
May 31
$377,328 KL.
31%
June 30
$8,017 KL.
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, rooted in the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent retaliatory actions, continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. A fragile ceasefire announced in April has allowed partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and rescue flights, yet restrictions persist with capacity limits and security reviews. European carriers including Lufthansa have signaled gradual June resumptions following safety assessments, while EASA has extended conflict-zone advisories through late May amid uncertainty over missile threats and diplomatic signals. These developments have tempered immediate closure risks, though any escalation in military alerts or official NOTAM extensions could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$880,594Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, rooted in the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent retaliatory actions, continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. A fragile ceasefire announced in April has allowed partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and rescue flights, yet restrictions persist with capacity limits and security reviews. European carriers including Lufthansa have signaled gradual June resumptions following safety assessments, while EASA has extended conflict-zone advisories through late May amid uncertainty over missile threats and diplomatic signals. These developments have tempered immediate closure risks, though any escalation in military alerts or official NOTAM extensions could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$880,594Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, rooted in the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent retaliatory actions, continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. A fragile ceasefire announced in April has allowed partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and rescue flights, yet restrictions persist with capacity limits and security reviews. European carriers including Lufthansa have signaled gradual June resumptions following safety assessments, while EASA has extended conflict-zone advisories through late May amid uncertainty over missile threats and diplomatic signals. These developments have tempered immediate closure risks, though any escalation in military alerts or official NOTAM extensions could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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