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icon for AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

icon for AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

12月 31

12月 31

是

23% 機率
Polymarket

$66,262 交易量

是

23% 機率
Polymarket

$66,262 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 22.5% implied probability for any AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unpublished, research-level math problems unsolved by most experts. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro recently set the leaderboard pace at 52.4% as of May 13, 2026—doubling prior scores like GPT-5.4's 47.6%—yet this falls short amid rapid but decelerating progress across tiers, with Tier 4 topping 48% via Google DeepMind's multi-agent co-mathematician. GPT-5.5 further flagged fatal errors in one-third of problems, prompting Epoch AI's review and casting doubt on prior evaluations. Key catalysts include upcoming frontier releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5, though scaling laws suggest compute and algorithmic hurdles loom large for the 90% threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,262
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 22.5% implied probability for any AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unpublished, research-level math problems unsolved by most experts. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro recently set the leaderboard pace at 52.4% as of May 13, 2026—doubling prior scores like GPT-5.4's 47.6%—yet this falls short amid rapid but decelerating progress across tiers, with Tier 4 topping 48% via Google DeepMind's multi-agent co-mathematician. GPT-5.5 further flagged fatal errors in one-third of problems, prompting Epoch AI's review and casting doubt on prior evaluations. Key catalysts include upcoming frontier releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5, though scaling laws suggest compute and algorithmic hurdles loom large for the 90% threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,262
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AI模型在2027年前於FrontierMath基準測試中得分≥90%？" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" has generated $66.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" is "AI模型在2027年前於FrontierMath基準測試中得分≥90%？" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.